We are the first to admit that we have a little bit of an unhealthy obsession with the bar exam — particularly the Michigan bar exam. One thing that we do (in the little free time we have during bar exam season) is make predictions on what will be on the Michigan Bar Exam. When we first started making predictions, we were not very good at accurately predicting what would be on the bar exam. However, now we are consistently correct on approximately 1/3 of the issues that are tested.
For example, we were right about many issues that were on the last two bar exams.
Specifically, we accurately predicted many of the issues on the July 2014 Michigan bar exam including:
- The No-Fault question on noneconomic damages,
- The 100-Mile Rule issue in the Domestic Relations question,
- The business judgment rule issue in the Corporations question,
- That hearsay (including Party Admission and Present Sense Impression) would be tested on the Evidence question,
- That the elements of a valid trust would be tested in the Trusts question (and that there would be a Trusts question!)
- That the 20-factor IRS test would be tested in Workers’ Compensation exam.
For the February 2015 Michigan bar exam, we predicted the following questions:
- That MIMIC and habit would be tested on the Evidence question,
- That spousal support would be on the Domestic Relations question,
- That Criminal Law would be a question about murder,
- That the Real Property question would test Easements,
- That the Personal Property question would test Bailments,
- That Wills would have a holographic will issue in it,
- That we wouldn’t see Trusts, Secured Transactions, No Fault, Conflicts, or any other less-tested subjects on the bar exam.
We make our predictions by looking at the most frequently tested issues, the most recently tested issues, and trends of what have been tested in the past. We also pay attention to “new law” that comes out as that has a tendency to show up on essays occasionally.
Note that most Michigan bar exams contain standard 15 questions (you can see a list of the standard 15 Michigan bar exam questions here). If you are trying to make your own predictions, start by looking at the subjects you are most likely to see. Note that some questions will contain issues that are more frequently-tested than others. For example, it is relatively easy to make at least somewhat accurate predictions for Domestic Relations, Personal Property, Torts, Criminal Procedure, and other subjects that repeat issues. We recommend that you carefully read these past bar exams so you can get a feel for what the highly tested issues are. Other subjects, like Professional Responsibility, Constitutional Law, Contracts, and Sales, are very hard to predict because they constantly test a variety of issues.
Besides paying attention to frequently tested issues, pay attention to recently-tested issues. The Michigan Board of Law Examiners occasionally tests the same exact topic two bar exams in a row – but usually it does not. You are more likely to see an issue that has been tested between one and five years ago re-tested again than you are to see an issue that was just tested on the prior bar exam.
If you want to review the most highly-tested law that is most likely to come up prior to the bar exam, we highly recommend you buy our How to Pass the Michigan Bar Exam book and study, memorize, and obsess over the one-sheets in the back of the book! These contain the highly-tested areas of Michigan law that are likely to come up on the Michigan bar exam!
We have not yet made our Michigan bar exam predictions for the upcoming bar exam. When we do, we will be revealing to our students and our attendees of the Michigan Bar Exam Seminar.
If you have any of your own Michigan bar exam predictions, please feel free to share what they are in the comments section below!
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